Tuesday, 15 March 2016

Day One late Thoughts



Well its the morning of the first day and I've taken time to peruse the Racing Post and watch the Morning Line and come up with a big outsider in the Supreme to hopefully get us off to a flyer!!.

The Supreme Novices has more of an open look to it than we think and there are a few in there that could upset the fav Min. I always like a horse that's shown a bit of speed as that's what you generally need after jumping the last jump at Cheltenham and one horse who definitely has that is John Ferguson's Penglai Pavillion. 
If you look back through his career you will see that he was a very classy flat horse when with Andre Fabre finishing 5th behind Treve in the 2013 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp on soft going. He was at the head of affairs throughout that race and got trapped in a pocket on the rail as they turned into the straight but finished well once in the clear out speeding Group 1 winners Al Kazeem and Ruler Of The World who finished 6th and 7th.
He proved in his first three runs over hurdles that he still has the class and showed speed, jumping ability and stamina and clocked 3m 43.40s when winning over two miles half a furlong at Stratford which makes me think the others will have to do something special to keep him out of the frame.
He has course form in the book handling the track well when winning in October after which he was cut in many ante post lists for likely Cheltenham targets.
The doubts came after his run back at Cheltenham at the Open meeting but Ferguson says he didn't have him right that day and he comes here now a fresh horse. Some people may say that is a negative but previous records are there to be broken and he is not your ordinary horse.
Why he is available at 40/1 I have no idea and in my view he should be half that at least. The more the going dries out the better his chance will be and if he's within a length or two of the front turning for home he should go very close.
The bookies are offering a quarter the odds on the first three home or one fifth on the first four with Paddy Power and William Hill. 

Bets
Penglai Pavillion 1 point ew @ 40/1 with Bet365, Totesport and Betfred 

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