Thursday, 17 December 2015

Try,Try and Try Again !!

Well there was an improved show from Paul Nicholls yesterday with two winners and a couple of good performances so hopefully things will begin to improve.

Dan Skelton also recorded a win and Kid Kalanisi came third at 100/1 - he had been 150/1 in the morning and on his form that was the sort of run he can do so it wasn't unexpected although I didn't back him myself.

Onto today

Paul Nicholls
Exeter - Heavy - slightly worse on the hurdles track
1.50 - Solar Impulse has won twice from 14 starts for Paul Nicholls so he doesn't win as regular as some in the stable. He is on a fairly stiff chase mark of 146c due to consistent form in good company with Josses Hill, Three Kingdoms and Monetaire.  He has had a breathing operation and the stable have chosen to go down the graduation chase route. Only a 5yo he is open to further improvement and Nicholls was saying prior to his seasonal debut that he was "a bit behind the others". That run was at Haydock over 2m 67 yards on soft in a Class 2 Graduation chase where he made a couple of errors, rallied towards the second last but finished 3rd of 3. He has been dropped 3lb's for that and although he makes jumping errors he will be in good company in this but not sure this heavy going will help his cause given his age and I'm not having a bet.

Dan Skelton
Towcester - Soft
12.20 - Toby Lerone was 2nd to Broadway Buffalo in last seasons Tommy Whittle at Haydock which takes place this Saturday and BB went on to finish 2nd to Cause Of Causes off an 8lb higher mark in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Toby Lerone missed the cut in the Irish National. He is a lover of soft ground and staying is his forte and he seems to perform better at right handed tracks.
He returned this season in a 16 runner Class 4 novices hurdle here over 2m 5f on good. I thought he might be a little bit tapped for pace being by Old Vic but he proved me wrong and made all, although he was all out at the end up the punishing straight.
He then went to Haydock 16 days later for a Class 2 handicap chase over 3m on soft where he was pulled up at fence 13 of 18, which was a disappointing effort. He has had 26 day break this time and he's back in a novice at Towcester.
He has responded to some form of headgear in the past but he has yet to wear any this season. He has a 7lb penalty for his win but Bridget Andrews takes off 5lb, he stays very well and the soft going will suit, so all in all he could take the beating again in this novice company.
He is slightly on the drift in the betting and you can currently get 7/4 with a few bookmakers and if he were to go 2/1 or more then he'd be worth a 1 point win.

2.40 - Blue Prairie has shown little to date this season and has gone off at 100/1 on his last two starts but that was no barrier to Kid Kalanisi yesterday for the stable.
He has been slow to come to hand and his pedigree suggests that he may be a stayer and that is born out by the fact that he doesn't really have a change of gear.
His best run was on his debut in a bumper and he hasn't shown much in two decent Class 4 novice hurdles on his other two runs and now drops to Class 5 maiden company in the hope that his perceived staying ability may help on this stiff track - if it does then the likely long starting price odds may be worth a small ew as at least he has some race fitness on his side.

Bets - None today save see above.

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