Thursday, 12 November 2015

Thursday at Ludlow and Taunton


I'm not going to write too much this am as I want to do a post for Cheltenham later on today as I will be away for the weekend and the next post after that will be on Tuesday.

Dan Skelton

Ludlow
1.30 - Fouburg is a full brother to Fou Et Sage who was disappointing on his first run for the stable recently. Fouburg has plenty of jumping experience from his time in France and is said not to be without pace but may have his work cut out to beat Alan Kings Who Dares Wins. Who Dares Wins beats Fouburg.

2.30 - Robin Of Locksley - a winning Irish pointer and second in a bumper he was then purchased by the stable at Cheltenham March sale. He is out of a half sister to the fairly useful 2m chaser Belstone Fox. A horse with ability, he ran with a lot of promise on his return at Cheltenham recently in a Class 2 novice hurdle over 2m 5f on good going. A big strong scopey looking individual he should be suited by the slightly easier going and with a run under his belt he has definite claims of winning this if he settles better. 2nd 11/4

Taunton
3.40 - Pumped Up Kicks was a Listed winner in a mares novice chase at Cheltenham last spring and she also ran well in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen despite the going being a little faster than she cares for. She prefers good and the stable think that she is capable of picking up a nice race and she has reportedly done well this autumn. A very good jumper she may have a spring target in something like the Topham at Aintree. She finished 8th of 8 on her reappearance in the Listed Bet365 Handicap Chase at Wetherby over 2m three and a half furlongs off a mark of 132c when the going was softer than ideal and she may have needed the run to bring her on, but that said I think the stable were expecting a better showing than she gave. She has dropped a 1lb and Ian Popham takes the ride again. The going should be perfect and she drops back into Class 3 in which she won her last race although she is the only mare in the race. I think she will run a lot better than last time and she is worth an ew. PU

Paul Nicholls

Taunton

2.40 - Modus was second in the champion bumper and will be very short in the betting. 1st 1/3 fav


3.10 - Amanto has yet to win for the stable from 6 starts including 1 flat race when he was second to Lil Rockerfeller at Newbury. He is said to be a lazy sort who has been green and backward and no doubt the stable will be hoping for a lot better from him today and with a rating of 115h and with Harry Cobden's 7lb claim he must have a chance of going close now that he has strengthened up. 2nd

3.40 - Howlongisafoot ran seven times last season winning twice at Taunton and Plumpton off marks of 125 and 130 in small fields. Said to be suited by an easy three miles or stiff two and a half as well as decent ground he should be capable of progressing further having reportedly had a good summer. He finished 5th on his first start back recently and although the choice of Sam Twiston Davies he is not one of the stable stars and although he will come on for that run I am not sure he is good enough to win this. 1st

3.40 - Black River ran three times for the stable last season winning on his first start at Taunton, beating Irish Cavalier but then failing to progress and finally succumbing to an injury. Overall he has been a bit disappointing but it is hoped he can step up this time around and the good going will be in his favour today. He has only had 9 races to date so is open to further improvement as the season progresses particularly as he's only 6yo. He wears a first time tongue tie and that may have some significance as he won when wearing first time cheek pieces so he may respond to that and 132c is a workable mark and he has prospects of running well against his stable companion. In addition he is one of just three horses to have beaten Vautour - albeit in 2013 in France. 3rd

4.10 - Rob Robin bled on his second start after showing some promise on his first at Ludlow last November. He's had a breathing operation over the summer to help his cause. The chances are he has improved further since then and although not a stable star he has prospects of being in the first three here.

Bets
1 point win Robin Of Locklsley @ 5/2 with Bet365 and Paddy Power - 2nd
0.50 point ew Pumped Up Kicks @ 8/1 with several firms - PU
0.50 point ew Black River @ 6/1 with Bet365, Willaim Hill and Paddy Power - 3rd
0.50 point ew Amanto @ 6/1 with Coral and William Hill - 2nd
0.50 point ew Rob Robin @ 10/1 with several firms 

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