Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Pipe Dreams!



Had a look at the Paddy Power Gold Cup field and I was looking at something at a tasty ew price but the only one that interests me is David Pipe's La Vaticane but she is far from a certain runner as she will need 7 to drop out to get in the race and that isn't looking likely at this stage.

If she did get in she would definitely have an ew chance and 20/1 with Ladbrokes would be a great price to get as it's a quarter the odds on the first four.

She is sure to have improved since her run over hurdles in March at Kempton in a Class 2 handicap hurdle when she was beaten by Theinval who went on to win at Aintree from a 10lb higher mark.

Her hurdles mark that day was 126h and she will run off 134c in this carrying just 10-1 and three of the last 5 winners have carried 10-5 or less. The weights are unlikely to go up as Sam Twiston Davies is pencilled in to ride top weight Sound Investment.

Prior to running at Kempton she'd had a long season in France as that was her tenth race of the campaign. The Kempton race was also run on the fastest ground she had encountered to date - good. All 5 of her wins had come on very soft or heavy going and she is likely to get conditions more in her favour here as she has a round action.

Nevertheless the time of the Kempton race was very good and she jumps well and she is one to keep on the right side of from a stable that has a particularly good record at this meeting and they are looking forward to running her in either this or the handicap chase on Friday for which she is already 4/1 fav.

Although the stables Kings Palace is the race fav he is not a definite runner either with his participation waiting on whether he schools well later this week and the stables Monetaire might be a good alternative.

Monetaire is only 3lbs higher than when he was second in the Browne Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate at the festival behind Darna and he is 2lb better off with that individual and will be better suited by the softer going he is likely to encounter here. He also suffered very badly from the standing start in that race which makes his performance all the more attractive for this and there is probably further improvement to come.

Bets

0.50 points ew Le Vaticane @ 20/1 Ladbrokes and 32Red - but you will have to take a chance on her getting in the race if you take this option so there's definitely a risk of losing your stake money. 

0.50 points ew Monetaire @ 11/1 888sport and 32Red

No comments:

Post a Comment