Thursday, 26 November 2015

Newbury 3 day Meeting

It looks like the start of a great 3 days racing at Newbury.

Dan Skelton is now halfway to his target of 100 winners this season having chalked up win number 50 at Lingfield on Tuesday when Wilton Milan scrambled home.

There are plenty of runners for both stables today and they are listed below with up to date information on each :

Paul Nicholls
Newbury - The going is unchanged, with the hurdle course soft, heavy in places, while the chase course is good to soft, soft in places.
12.30 - Modus finished 2nd in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival behind Moon Racer. He then finished 3rd behind Bellshill and Disko at Punchestown. Since then he has changed hands for 190,000GBP and returned to the fray at Taunton to win a Class 3 novices hurdle readily. He is a potential top hurdler in the making and he should improve further as the season progresses and he learns to settle in his races. 
See The World could pose a threat in receipt of 8lb as he ran an extraordinary race on his only start last season and went into many peoples notebooks.He was well fancied for the Cheltenham bumper but didn't run and if he arrives on his "A" game it should be a good match and he has been nibbled at in the market.

1.00 - Wuff has his first start for Paul Nicholls having previously been with Tom George and he has come from the same source as The Ould Lad who ran disappointingly for the stable after being well backed at Wincanton. He won three of his first four races, a bumper and two novice hurdles having previously won a point to point and then failed to win over fences in three runs. Tom George always considered him to be a 3m chaser in the making so it is probably hoped that the change of scenery will make a difference. He returns here in a 3m 1f 214y amateur riders handicap chase off a mark of 130c and the excellent Will Biddick takes the ride, however Nicholls warns that he made need the run and the price is too short if that is the case.

1.35 - Amanto  has yet to win for the stable from 7 starts including 1 flat race when he was second to Lil Rockerfeller at Newbury. He is said to be a lazy sort who has been green and backward and he returned recently at Taunton where he finished 2nd in a Class 4 handicap beaten three quarters of a length. I thought he had a decent chance at the weights in that with Harry Cobden claiming 7lb as well but it wasn't to be and he has now gone up 7lb to 122h which probably leaves him to find a bit of improvement with some of the opposition. However, that said, Nicholls thinks that he has improved for the run and provided he copes with the soft going he should run well.

2.10 - Port Melon has had just the eight races under rules but apart from winning at Taunton he has always been campaigned at Grade 1 tracks. A bit headstrong he has always been a chaser in the making as he is another from the yard that is big and scopey and no doubt the stable hope he will be progressive in that sphere as he won two point to points. He had a breathing operation over the summer and he returned at Kempton with a win in a novices limited handicap chase over 3m on good off a mark of 132c winning by 2 lengths. He needed the run there and he will definitely come on a bit more. The stable have revised their plan though to run in another handicap and take their chance here, however this is a cracking novice chase that will have a bearing on the whole season. The cheek pieces are re employed and provided he copes with the softer going he should give a good account but will probably play second fiddle to some of the others.

2.45 - Warrior's Tale did very well over hurdles winning two for Nicky Richards last season. He was bought privately in the summer with chasing in mind being a big, scopey sort. He is horse the stable like but he starts off on top weight here in this limited handicap chase over 2m 6f and this looks an open race with most of the big yards represented and they go 6/1 and up the field and there is potential to seek out some decent odds if you a have a strong fancy in mind.

3.15 - San Benedeto has had 13 races under rules to date with 7 of those being over hurdles having started his career in France. He won twice last season at Wincanton and Stratford the latter of those coming in a Class 4 novices hurdle when he beat Set The Trend when wearing a hood for the first time due to running free in earlier races. He likes good ground and a flat track as he is said to be a speedy type. However that said he returned on heavy over 2m 4f at his local track Wincanton and after settling well he came through to win as he liked. He has gone up 12lb for that and the stable run him here off a 6lb penalty before his new mark kicks in. He drops back to 2m but Nicholls doesn't see that as a problem - the problems he will have will come from the opposition and Skelton's Ch'Tibello is not short in the speed department.

Taunton - Following a dry night the going remains good to soft, good in places.
1.10 - The Outlaw's dam is a half-sister to smart 2m-2m3f hurdle/chase winner Woolcombe Folly (by Presenting) from the family of high-class staying chaser Cahervillahow. He had bits and pieces of form last season when he was mentally a bit immature and tended to race too keenly and free. Nicholls still has faith in his ability and probably sees the potential from his breeding and after an operation in the summer to help his breathing he could improve significantly but he has a lot to do to beat Dan Skelton's Mister Miyagi.

2.20 - Saint Roque was useful over hurdles before a run of bad luck put him on the sidelines for almost two years being lucky to survive when he fractured two bones in his neck in a nasty fall at Kempton. He recovered well, came back into training last season and then cut his leg badly whilst schooling over fences. This is his first run for 570 days but Nicholls reports he has done loads of work at home, schools well and will appreciate the flat track at Taunton where better ground should suit. He's still a novice due to his time off and he starts here in a novices limited handicap chase off a mark of 130c and he has every chance of a bold show.

Dan Skelton
2.10 - Value At Risk was a high class hurdler and won on his first start for the stable here at Newbury beating the progressive Foryourinformation by 22 lengths. He then ran on bad ground on Cheltenham trials day in January when he was only just denied before running a respectable 5th in the Albert Bartlett over 3m having led turning for home. Plan "A" though has always been chasing as he is big and strong individual and he is potentially very exciting. The stable have been able to tailor his preparation this season as opposed to last when he arrived with them late on. The planned prep run at Bangor didn't come off because of the going but if he is as good as the stable think he is then that shouldn't pose a problem and he looks like taking high rank.

3.15 - Ch'Tibello novice status runs out on 1st November so they just scrape into this one. He put in a decent performance on the flat in France for this stable before winning his only Hurdle at Compeigne over 2m 1f on heavy. He jumps well and is not short of speed. He was beaten by the 135h rated Francis Of Assisi at Fakenham in a 3 runner bumper going down by a neck. He then came up against a decent field at Ascot and finished 2nd to Altior 147h, who has since won again at Cheltenham beating Maputo 147h. There was 20 lengths back to the 3rd Vancouverite 132h at Ascot and Ch'Tibello runs off 137h here so he looks to have a chance at the weights if he runs up to form or even improves further.
The main danger is probably Nicholls San Benedeto(see above) who went up 12lb for his last win and runs here with a 6lb penalty so is effectively 6lb well in.

1.45 - Mister Mayagi is ideally suited by a strong run race which he should get. He is genuine and a very good jumper and the stable think plenty of him and they hope that he can make up in to a decent 2m novice hurdler. He won a Class 3 maiden hurdle at Cheltenham on his first start back in a pleasing fashion. The going and distance should be perfect today as long as it doesn't get any softer as he was pulled out of a Grade 2 last weekend because of the going. He should go well with his 7lb penalty for winning last time out.

Suggested Bets

Amanto 0.50 points ew @ 12/1 with Coral and others

Value At Risk 1 point win @ 11/4 with Paddy Power and others

Ch'Tibello 1 point win @ 100/30 with William Hill and Bet365

Saint Roque 1 point win @ 100/30 Ladbrokes

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