Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Is it Value!.....or not???



"Smad Place, fifth without the benefit of a prep run 12 months ago, was my initial fancy after a sparkling return at Kempton, but the value has been squeezed out of him over the last couple of weeks".
Those are the words of Paul Kealy, who is a great tipster, in today's Weekender. Because there is no value he has now changed his mind and has picked another two runners in this weekends Hennessy and they are If In Doubt(10/1) and Theatre Guide.
What does he actually mean by "there is no value" - surely if by his thought process he thought Smad Place(6/1) was going to win a few weeks ago then it's still going to win, isn't it??, Has the form changed??
If anyone knows what he actually means then please comment below.

Onto today and neither stable has any runners - Dan Skelton had 2 winners from 3 runners yesterday which was always a possibility as I wrote in yesterday's blog post.

There is a Class 2 Sprint Handicap at Kempton at 7.15 tonight which looks decent and Lancelot Du Lac looks a worthy fav. Of those at higher odds one at an interesting price on his debut on the All Weather at Kempton is Boy In The Bar who is now with Ian Williams having left Ed De Giles after just 3 runs. Prior to that, Also this year, he was with Richard Fahey for 4 runs and that is where his best form was shown in a couple of decent handicaps.
He was 2nd of 17 to Algar Lad at York in a Class 2 Handicap off a mark of 92 in May and then at Hamilton in July he was a running on 4th behind Poyle Vinnie, Tatlisu and Shared Equity in another Class 2 Handicap. Poyle Vinnie went on to finish 2nd in the Ayr Gold Cup off an 8lb higher mark, Tatlisu won the Ayr Silver Cup on the same mark and Shared Equity won the Coral Sprint Trophy off a 4lb higher mark - whilst Boy In The Bar has dropped 8lbs.
In addition the 5th and 6th Eccleston and Another Wise Kid both won.
I was at York when Boy In The Bar was second and remember him looking particularly well in the pre parade ring.
He could be capable of a good run for his new trainer on his first start at Kempton back at 6f, re united with his jockey at Hamilton Joe Fanning and on an 8lb lower mark.
The negatives are he is drawn 11 on the outside of the field and the fact that he doesn't wear blinkers - his best form has been with them on and those factors probably account for him drifting in the market but at 33/1 generally he looks worth a risk with a small ew at one fifth the odds on the first 3 home.

We will know whether he was value or not once they reach the finishing post!!

Good Luck.

1 comment:

  1. The best horse in the race does not always win. That, and the imponderable "risk" associated with horse racing - and particularly jump racing - mean you have to consider "value". Everyone has their own interpretation: mine is that SMAD PLACE is a 5/1 chance to win the Hennessy, so I'd say the market is about right. I'd prefer to obtain 7/1 or longer for the odds to represent "value" and that is what Paul Kealy means. At 9/2, there is no value and therefore you should not bet on him. When calculating odds you should always consider risk: being brought-down, left at the start, jockey error or dropping the whip, being impeded, saddle slipping, and falling or refusing, or picking up an injury. That's why I never bet on jump racing at odds less than 9/4.

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