Friday, 20 November 2015

Friday Again!!



I was pretty much bang on with my stable horse appraisals yesterday and there are 7 runners today to look at below :

Dan Skelton
Ascot - Soft, good to soft in places. There doesn't appear to be any further rain due.
1.30 - Bon Chic was due to run at Wincanton yesterday but was taken out because of the heavy going and presumably she doesn't want it overly soft and performs better on good so that is a big negative today. The stables early plan is to campaign her with the Listed mares novice chase final at Cheltenham in April in mind. Her jockey Robert Dunne only has a 3% strike rate this season and she is one for another day when the going is more in her favour.

2.40 - Squire Trelawney has been with the stable a while but his first win from 7 starts for them came last time out at Wincanton in a 6 runner Class 4 novices limited handicap chase over 2m 4f on good. He has been off for 557 days prior to that win so there may be a "bounce" factor to consider. He has gone up 6lb for that win and is on a workable mark of 114c which brings him into this Class 3 on bottom weight of 10-1 which is Ryan Mahon's lowest riding weight in last 12 months. The stable thought he would improve for the run pre race last time even though he had done a lot of work. He is a sound jumper who should appreciate the softer going, longer distance and stiffer track. Of his opponents Tenor Nivernais and Garrahalish are back down to their last winning marks,

Haydock - Soft, heavy in places. There are patches of rain in the area at present.
1.55 - Welsh Shadow is another from the stable that is highly thought of being related to Celestial Gold and he won his bumper by 7 lengths beating Duelling Banjo's who won the Class 4 novices hurdle at Kempton recently. He was comprehensively beaten by Champion Bumper 4th Yanworth, who has since won again, on his first run back at Exeter in a Class 3 2m1f novices hurdle on soft going. He remains at a similar distance in this Class 1 Listed race and the stable will be hoping of a better showing here on his second run back as I would imagine they have aspirations of the festival with this horse but odds on ain't for me.

3.05 - Baratineur was a dual bumper winner in France on soft and heavy going. He is said to have a shown a lot of speed and ability at home. Returned at Huntingdon in a Class 5 maiden hurdle over 2m on good going finishing 4th behind Great Hall. He failed to settle and pulled hard and it is hoped the first race has taken out some of the fizz and brought him on too.

Paul Nicholls
Haydock
1.20 - Solar Impulse has won twice from 13 starts for Paul Nicholls so he doesn't win as regular as some in the stable. That said he is on a fairly stiff chase mark of 149c due to consistent form in good company running with smart novice form with Josses Hill, Three Kingdoms and Monetaire. The stable have chosen to go down the graduation chase route and that works in his favour today as he is favourably weighted with his two opponents - ie Doctor Phoenix would be 13lb better off in a handicap, however his trainer is excited by his potential and that's why he may be prepared to overlook the weight disadvantage. As Solar Impulse is still only 5 he is open to further improvement however Paul Nicholls was saying about 12 days ago that he was "a bit behind the others at present". He has had a breathing operation and will need the run and I personally think the stable are a bit confused as to what his ideal conditions are as he 's back over 2m here on soft against two horses that have a race fitness edge - the cheek pieces are also re employed. The Tizzard stable had the runaway winner in this race last season in Third Intention as I was there and I remember it being a particularly "bad day at the office"for Sam Twiston Davies - so Kings Lad could hand out some more punishment on going that he will like as Doctor Phoenix will try to make this a test.

1.55 - Marracudja had a breathing operation over the summer. After his run at Doncaster last December he was put away. He duly rewarded patience when he made a comfortable winning return at Wincanton on 25th October in a Class 4 national hunt novices hurdle. He then followed up that win at the same course in a Class 3 national hunt novices hurdle over 2m on soft winning by a comfortable 9 lengths He.jumps well, possesses speed and a flat track probably suits, that said he probably doesn't want it too soft so the going may be going against him. He is progressing well and the stable are looking forward to his 2m chasing career already. - NON RUNNER

2.30 - Silsol ran 4 times last season winning twice at Newbury and Ffos Las on soft and heavy so he should have no trouble with conditions here. He is the highest rated hurdler Nicholls has sent chasing this year and the stable think there is more scope for progress in this code, particularly on soft ground. There are no frills with this horse he is solid and dependable and jumps well and the plan has always been to campaign him in the north as the stable are high in the novice chase department. He won on his return at Carlisle beating a couple of good horses and he should have come on a bit for the run. However he faces two decent rivals here in Minella Rocco and Private Malone but Silsol's race fitness should give him the edge on going he likes.

Bets 


Squire Trelawney 0.50 points ew @ 11/2 with Bet365, BetVictor and William Hill

Silsol 1 point win @ 7/4 with several bookmakers
Baratineur 0.50 points ew @ 7/1 with several bookmakers

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