Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Form or Luck!!



Whilst I appreciate there is a large element of form to horse racing it sometimes falls down to just luck.
I've been putting up bets on the Nicholls and Skelton stables over the last few weeks but things haven't been going too well and that has been compounded over the last few days.
On Saturday I went for Nicholls All Yours only for a deluge of rain to hit the track and for the stables mud loving Irving, who was said to need the run, bounding clear to win. I also went for Skeltons Upepito only for him to fall when seemingly going better than anything.
Yesterday, as a result of that, I did't bother with either of Nicholls runners, although I gave them a good write up, and what happens they both win!!.....when your lucks in its in.

Not to be deterred by mere luck we are back into the fray today as Nick Skelton has five runners. He did have one yesterday but I left it alone as he made little mention of it in several stable tours.

Dan Skelton
Huntingdon - The going has dried up overnight from Soft to Soft - good to soft in places.
1.10 - Herons Heir won a 7 runner bumper in Ireland on his first run and on the back of that was thrown straight into a Listed bumper at Ascot finishing 7th of 9. His next and final run was in a novice hurdle at Newbury when he finished 5th behind Cole Harden but the trainer readily admitted that it was his fault that the horse didn't perform to his capabilities in either race. He drops back to 2m here, which could be his ideal trip, and he must be settling better now as the stable haven't reached for any head gear. Dan Skelton has, a lot of time for this horse and although he's been off for 664 days he could figure prominently against the likes of Camborne and Younevercall and he's worth an ew.

2.10 - Calculated Risk has come from John Quinn's stable and is probably best watched on his stable debut. Having owned a share in Lil Rockerfeller when he was with Middleham Park I am keen to see how he gets on after his promising run last time out as the going and track should be perfect for him.

2.40 - Notnowsam joined the yard earlier in the year from Noel Quinlan and was quickly off the mark at Warwick - being well placed to win a Class 4 Novice Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft. He jumped well that day and won in a respectable time. Having only run 11 races under rules and still being a 4yo he is open to improvement. He returned over fences at Wetherby 4 weeks ago finishing 2nd to Oliver's Gold when he was headed with a 150 yards to go for which he has gone up 2lb to 124c. There are no cheekpieces employed today and the easier going should suit and he has a favourites chance of winning.

Lingfield
1.00 - Rock Of Leon ran three times over the jumps last season winning first time out at Fontwell when scraping home after idling having looked set to win by further. He was tried in a Grade 2 next time out at Haydock but he wasn't up to it. The stable think there is definitely more to come and he was pitched straight into a handicap hurdle off 124h first time out this season at Stratford when he finished 5th of 11 after being unable to quicken between the last two hurdles. The heavy going may be more than he cares for but he has won on soft. He's been dropped 1lb and whilst he has a fitness advantage on a lot of the field he dropped away tamely last time and may need to come down a bit further in the handicap to find a winning opportunity.

3.30 - Arthamint won a maiden bumper at Ludlow last December but then never progressed from there in 3 runs. He returned at Ludlow a few weeks ago where he finished 6th after pulling hard. He is said to be more of a chasing prospect but the stable will look to try and win a hurdle. He has had a breathing operation but it hasn't had any significant effect to his form. He's gone up 2lb for finishing 2nd in a Class 5 last time at Uttoxeter when he kept on to take that position in the last 100 yards. He's not one of the stable stars and although I may be wrong I cant see him winning.

Bets
Notnowsam 1 point win @ 11/4 Coral, William Hill and Betvictor
Herons Heir 0.50 points ew @ 8/1 with most firms

I will be having a look at the Paddy Power Chase later this afternoon and I think there is one that's worth a decent ew punt. Plus there's Exeter, Ayr and Bangor tomorrow to look forward to.

Good Luck - we certainly need it !!

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