Friday, 27 November 2015

Day two at Newbury



It looked a real slog at Newbury yesterday so be prepared for more of the same today.

There are also several non runners so please keep a check on those and any further rain.

Paul Nicholls
Newbury - Hurdle Course - Soft, heavy in places. Chase Course - Soft.
12.25 - Copain De Classe is said to be a grand, big strong chasing type very much in the mould of Saphir Du Rheu. He was bought in the summer after he won a bumper at Vichy in France in May where they use stalls for these types of races. He managed to win despite being very slowly away out of the stalls and running green and the form has since been franked by the runner up. The stable have since acquired the third horse home. He is not a Triumph Hurdle type horse, but as he is a three-year-old the stable think it makes sense to start him over hurdles here as he he is said to jump well. - Weakening when fell at the last - would not have been placed.

12.55 - Mon Successeur was previously trained by Guillame Macaire in France and won his only two starts over fences before joining Paul Nicholls. He is only a 4yo and finished 2nd on his return in a novices limited handicap chase, over a Wetherby 2m, despite being in receipt of a 4yo weight allowance, however he was said to have needed the run that day and wasn't used to British fences as well as hanging a bit right.
He was given a spin over hurdles last time at Cheltenham as the stable thought it would open more options but he looked as though he would appreciate a bit further and finished 10/20 beaten 18 lengths. He is a half brother to Easter Day and he has quite a tough task here in this conditional jockeys handicap chase being the only four-year-old in the field, but he should be that much fitter now. 2nd

1.30 - Easter Day is due a change of luck as he has suffered all sorts of problems over the last 12 months and he ran well enough back over hurdles at Cheltenham last time in order to bolster his confidence. Previously he was sensibly pulled up by Sam Twiston-Davies after three fences at Kempton when he was unsettled by jumping into the back of another horse at the first. He has had plenty of schooling, and is on a fair mark over hurdles and fences so the stable are looking for an improved run this time although this race will take some winning. The cheek pieces are left on to aid his concentration and he has been dropped 2lb since his last run. - Ran ok, threatened to get involved turning for home but folded tamely when the race developed in earnest.

2.05 - Sametegal a former useful hurdler being placed in the Triumph and Greatwood hurdles won impressively at Huntingdon on his debut over fences under Nick Schofield after a long absence(599 days) with a leg injury. Paul Nicholls was thrilled to see him return in such sparkling form and loved his fluent jumping. Though this race is more competitive and he has a 7lb penalty the stable are hopeful he can take another step forward over two and a half miles which should suit him well in a race not short of talent. Brought Down

2.40 - Howlongisafoot ran seven times last season winning twice at Taunton and Plumpton off marks of 125 and 130 in small fields. Said to be suited by an easy three miles or stiff two and a half as well as decent ground he should be capable of progressing further having reportedly had a good summer. He finished 5th on his first start back recently and like quite a lot of his stablemates this season he improved a fair bit from his first run by winning handily at Taunton just over two weeks ago.
He is not the most straight-forward horse to ride as he has a habit of pulling himself up once he hits the front. He was ready early and is said to continue in form at home and should handle the softer ground here although I don't think he is one to put the mortgage on.

3.15 - Chartbreaker came from Germany in the summer of 2014 having shown useful form but he then took an age to get over a gelding operation. He started at Ascot four weeks ago where he was a bit careful at his hurdles early on but he has potential and obviously possesses a bit of speed and a touch of class. The stable are still learning about him but think he is crying out for a trip which he gets here, he will love the soft ground and should give a bold account.

Dan Skelton
Newbury
12.25 - Kasakh Noir is said to be a big rangy horse. He won a bumper in France at Argentan over 2m 2f on good going by 8 lengths - quickening up to score easily after kicking clear two out. He maybe be best watched in what is a tricky race to work out. 1st

1.30 - Open Hearted Formerly with Nicky Henderson, for whom he won 6-14, was purchased cheaply at the Doncaster Spring Sale. He has since had two runs - a Class 3 Handicap Chase at Bangor over 2m 4f 72y on Good where he finished a one paced 2nd after running in snatches - wearing a tongue tie for the first time and when winning narrowly after a protracted battle with Knock House at Fakenham. Knock House franked the form by winning of a 2lb higher mark at Cheltenham recently.
He is a big chasing type from the family of Spanish Steps and hopefully top weight shouldn't be too much of a burden as he reverts back to hurdles over 3m against some proven rivals. Pulled Up - was off the pace and couldn't get back into it and made little impression.

2.05 - Three Musketeers ran to a good level of form last season and was given a light campaign and he seems set for more of the same this time around. He gets two and a half miles and will get three in time. He is said to be a very likeable horse with lots of ability that will hopefully make up into a top class novice destined for big prizes over fences.
His trainer was a little bit disappointed with him at Huntingdon as he didn't have him quite right on the day and he should improve a fair bit on that and a bold show can be expected in receipt of 7lb from Dell Arca and Sametegal. 1st - Always going well.

2.40 - Upepito came to the stable having run six times for Venetia Williams winning once at Warwick in a Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m off a mark of 124. It was though that he didn't finish his races and has been operated on his wind over the summer. He is considered to be an ideal type to go two and a half miles and is on a workable mark of 128. He started the season in the Bobby Renton Handicap Chase at Wetherby over 2m 3 and half on good finishing 2nd to Village Vic(won again since) beaten a neck and that lack of race may have just cost him that day. He then unseated at Aintree when going well and the stable feel there is a good race to be won with him.He remains on 128c and Harry Skelton takes the ride this time.

3.45 - Kid Kalanisi was third in a bumper last season at Chepstow when the Good going was said to be a bit quick for him. He fell on his return, again at Chepstow, when he got badly hampered at the third last and then lost his confidence and fell at the next. The stable think he will make a nice jumper in time and he showed he had ability before falling last time but he would need to have improved a fair bit to trouble the judge in this.

Doncaster - Good
1.20 - Le Bacardy returned at Aintree in the Old Roan Chase where he finished 6th after a couple of errors. He's a 9yo so he is unlikely to find any more improvement and is considered to be a spring horse in any event. He has to be held up over this sort of distance and is best produced late He has dropped 4lb since Aintree after pulling up in a decent race at Cheltenham last time. He should appreciate the good going and is a fair price judged on his win at Market Rasen in the same class in May

3.35 - Lynda's Boy is said to have shown a good attitude at home and has strengthened up over the summer and is one to watch on this debut.

Bets

Le Bacardy - 0.50 points ew at 16/1 with several bookmakers
Travelling well when brought down

Open Hearted - 0.50 points ew at 14/1 with Stan James
Pulled Up

Three Musketeers - 1 point win at 5/1 Stan James
1st

Upepito - 1 point win at 4/1 generally

Chartbreaker - 0.50 ew at 20/1 at 888Sport and 32Red

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