Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Luck of the Draw !



When you start relying on luck more than form you know in your head you shouldn't be investing, but that is what you have to do at Epsom on the 5f course.
So often we have seen the form horse stuck behind a wall of horses with no time to get out or the out of form horse drawn on the rail turning out to have a huge advantage.
Like you I will be probably be tempted to back something so lets look at the runners involved.
A strong player is Smoothtalkinrascal has run twice at the track before when with David O'Meara, both runs were in the Dash on Derby Day. He has since switched stables and had 3 runs for his new trainer on the AW, but he has dropped 16lb in the ratings since last year's run in the Epsom dash in which he finished 11th beaten three and three quarter lengths. His two best speed figures were recorded in the dash and its a course he performs well on and therefore its likely to presume that he will be ready to do himself justice given that even if he goes up 7lb for winning he will still be 9lb better for his run in the dash in June. The negatives are that he may prefer to have a little cut in the going, he will be held up so he may need some element of luck in running and he has switched stables.
There are 3 course and distance winners to consider in the line up namely Long Awaited, Monumental Man and Fair Value.
Long Awaited is no mug but he hasn't won a race since his win over C&D in 2012 although he has often flattered to deceive since. He was rated 86 when he last won here and he is off 85 today and he ran a good race last time out when 2nd at Beverley albeit form a good draw. However when he did win here, the time he recorded in doing so, is the best of the course and distance runners we have today. There has been talk that he may have a breathing issue but he ran well enough at Beverley so that shouldn't put you off but he may be one of those horses that always finds something to get himself beat.
Monumental Man is 2lb higher than he has ever won off on a mark of 80 and is 5lb higher than when winning over C&D. He's had a prep run but I would put him behind Smoothtalkinrascal, Long Awaited and Fair Value.
Fair Value has the most experience at the track of the 4 we are looking at with 5 runs and her C&D win also came in 2012 off a mark of 84 and she is 5lb lower today off 79. She actually finished 2nd to Long Awaited when that horse won in 2012 when she was giving him 4lb, although Long Awaited won cleverly - today Fair Value receives 6lb so there is a 10lb turnaround in weights so she could be the each way value at 12/1 and she will like the going conditions which should get faster through the morning.
Of the others Secret Missile has the plum draw against the rail but hasn't run for 200 days and may help to set the race up for finishers whilst Piazon may have an eye on Chester's May meeting and his stables runners usually improve for the run and you have to be on your "A" game in this as it will be run so fast.
Looking at the above I'm going to go each way with Fair Value at 12/1(William Hill) as I think she represents fair value on her favoured going off a good rating and I hope she can break quickly, get a good position and hold the lead as long as possible.

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