Wednesday, 27 February 2013

Is there anything to be gained backing ante post at this stage ?



Jim Mcgrath said on last Saturday's morning line that there was no point backing ante post on some races at Cheltenham as you just dont know what is going to run until the final declarations are provided 48 hours before.

Tom Segal, in today's Weekender, who is a lover of ante post bets, puts up David Pipe's Ballynagour as a good thing in whatever race he runs in but Ballynagour currently has a choice of 4 possible races - The Byrne Group Plate (best price 6/1), The Grand Annual (16/1), The Coral Cup (16/1) or The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle (16/1).
Okay if we get lucky and choose the right race we may get a few points extra but equally if we choose the wrong option then it's a point lost before we start.
When we make these ante post bets it is surely in the hope that the selections will win rather than place and when the festival is finally here nothing will have changed we will still be wanting that horse to win but more importantly we will then know exactly which race Ballynagour is in and we will also know exactly who the opposition is.
There's no point speculating, or backing everything in sight everytime someone says they know something, why not sit tight and wait until the night before and then get stuck in. The chances are the bookies will want to attract bets and will push the prices out again.
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2 comments:

  1. Always tricky are antepost wagers. I've already lost on a couple and the Festival is 3 weeks away!
    Keep them small (I'm maximum £5 win) and be realistic, the horse has to have a decent chance of actually taking part in the race your betting on.
    For those at the head of the markets, I always think its best to wait until the day before having a wager as they nearly always drift.

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  2. Thursday : David Pipe has Ballynagour in six of the festival handicaps but punters have made up their minds where Ballynagour is going by backing him into 4-1 (from 5) with Bet365 for the Byrne Group Plate on March 14.

    Ballynagour was available at 10-1 after last Friday's runaway Warwick win for a race Pipe won last year with hot favourite Salut Flo, who shares the same owner.

    But standing in his way is Hunt Ball, last year's Pulteney Land Investments winner who is a general 7-1 chance for the Byrne Group Plate's 2m5f test.

    Despite being raised 21lb to a mark of 143, Ballynagour remains attractively treated on 10st 7lb in the Byrne Group Plate, although if top-weight Wishfull Thinking takes up one of his other engagements the weights will go up at least 5lb. That would leave Hunt Ball to head the weights from a mark of 157, 15lb higher than last year.

    Marc Olley, who handicaps the 2m4f chase division, said: "In my three or four years of handicapping jumpers I don't think I've ever put a horse up by as much as 21lb before. Only time will tell if 21lb was enough."

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