Thursday, 30 September 2010

Early thoughts on the Qatar Prix de L'Abbaye de Longchamp

This Sunday sees one of the spectacles of the sprint season at Longchamp and at the moment there is every chance that it is going to be soft up the 5f course. Of course the layout of the track has never made this the easiest race to watch on TV and its probably the worst view for a sporting event known to man.
Swiss Diva (3/1) has struck up a good partnership with her jockey and has won her last 3 races in France showing improved form on the soft ground she has encountered and that is no surprise being by Pivotal out of an Indian Ridge mare. However although she has been winning well I'm not convined the times she has recorded are good enough to win this which is usually run at a very fast tempo, 54.40 secs in 2008.
Another of the home team that has done well on her foreign trips is Piccadilly Filly (33/1) and she has been showing decent speed albeit she has been run out of it close home a couple of times most recently in the Nunthorpe. Her conqueror at Chantilly on Soft in June was Planet Five (16/1)and he reopposes on 4lb better terms this time so should confirm form, albeit that was Piccadilly Filly's first start of the season so she may be thereabouts come the end.
Others that may well go well on a softer surface are Amico Fritz (20/1) and 2008 winner Marchand D'or (16/1).
The British usually have a good record in this but I dont think were going to continue that run this year unless the current 11/4 fav Lady of the Desert takes her chance and with the next 2 in the betting also being trained in the UK there are some decent prices for some of the others to be had. Total Gallery (8/1) last years winner hinted at a return to form last time out but he still appears to be below his best.
At this stage I would be looking at having an ew interest in Planet Five and then seeing if anything else develops over the next few days.

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