Wednesday, 25 August 2010

Up a bit, down a bit

Here we are again and first up is the Symphony Group Hcap at York over 5f on 17th August. It was won by Hamish McGonagall at his beloved York where he stepped up once again on the form he had shown already this year. He won this in taking fashion by 1 1/2 lengths from Judge n' Jury who ran right up to his best. As a result Hamish has been raised 5lb to 109 and the 2nd is up 1lb to 96 which is 2lb below his last winning mark. Quest for Success in 3rd had run well the weekend before from a poor draw and he did well to get so close as he had a hard race at Ripon, he is left on the same mark of 100. In 4th Haajes probably ran his best race so far for this trainer and he goes up 1lb to 87, but if he were to run to this form in a lesser grade then he would take all the beating. Strike up the Band was at the head of affairs until tiring late on approaching the final furlong and he has been dropped a further 3lb to 87, if he gets a bit of cut then he can win off that mark.

The Class 6 3yo Hcap over 6f run at Folkestone (I dont usually go this low in the hcap) was run in a decent time and the winner Dream Number won quite cosily in the end by 2 1/2 lengths from Stratton Banker having been at the head of affairs throughout. Only rated 62 prior to this, she has been upped 4lb to 66 for this win and the William Muir stable has been showing signs of a revival lately. When the fairer sex start improving at this time of the year they usually show no stopping, so she is worth following next time and she is entered up in 3 races over the next week or so.

Later on in the week at York the Class 2 3yo Hcap over 5f went to Monsieur Joe who had run well at Ascot previously. He won this by a short head from La Fortunata and as a result has been raised 4lb to 101, however his improvement looks as though it can continue as he didnt have a very good draw (stall 2) in this and he was still able to get up. Of those behind Singeur ran well in 4th and the eyecatcher was Hoof It under Kieren Fallon who got no sort of run and compensation must surely await, even though he is now 11lb higher than his last win.

At Chester on the Saturday the Class 4 6f Hcap went to Great Charm by 1/2 length from Roker Park, who ran his best race for a while. The winner went up 4lb to 81 whilst the 2nd was raised 2lb to 84. The softish going would not have suited all and an old favourite of this blog Indian Trail was dropped another 1lb to 80 for finishing out the back.

At Ripon the Class 2 6f Hcap went the way of Tajneed whose form figures here now read 11121 and he led them a merry dance in this after his defeat by Damika last weekend in the Great St Wilfrid. As a result he has gone up 7lb to 104 and things may start to get tough, although he looks on top form right now. The consistent Parisian Pyramid was 2nd and he goes up 1lb to 99 and being 4 he is going to be figuring in these handicaps for quite a while to come. Medicean Man ran well in 5th and is down a pound to 95 and his trainer thinks a step up in trip to 7f will see him run better, whilst Sonny Red who already looked well handicapped is down a further 3lb to 89 and should go close soon.

At Sandown Sohraab managed to dictate matters from his rails draw in the 5f Class 2 Hcap and win by 1 length from Judge N'Jury who had chased home Hamish McGonagall at York (above) earlier in the week and ran off 95 in both races. Sohraab as a result has been raised 4lb to 89 but is still realtively well treated on his best form so he could easily win again now he has got his head in front.

Hope you all have a good weekend and keep watching the results of the races featured in this blog.

Tuesday, 24 August 2010

Harry Patch Wins !

Followers of the weekly post "Up a bit, down a bit" were treated to a winner today in Harry Patch who won at evens at Yarmouth. He had figured in last weeks post as follows :-
In our regular look at the ups and downs of the handicapper we start the week with the Class 3 Halliwell Jones Hcap over 6f at Haydock on the 7th August which was won by Poet's Place by 3 3/4 lengths from Harry Patch with Damika the Great St Wilfrid winner a further 1 length away in 3rd. The winner as a result was raised 10lb to a mark of 96 and considering Damika won off the same mark of 94 the following week the winner could be worth following in the coming months. Trained by David Barron he is definitely in the right hands and I can see him running well in the Ayr Gold Cup.


The form of that race appears to be working out and we should keep a close eye on runners from that race.

Another race to follow is the one won by Fadhb Ar Bith at Carlisle on 25th July with the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 8th, 9th and 13th all winning since. The following comments were made in "Up a bit, down a bit" :-
The same afternoon at Carlisle Fadhb Ar Bith delivered on the promise of his last run at Pontefract by being closer to the pace this time and was raised 6lb to 79 for his 3/4 length win from Amethyst Dawn, however he looks a progressive type and can win again.

On the performances of all those behind a 6lb rise for Fadhb Ar Bith looks reasonable and he should be followed next time.

Be sure to look at this weeks post on the handicappers highs and lows later in the week.

I have been learning several things over the summer in my first year at the Racing blog and I hope to put them to good use next flat season when I will be going into the big sprint races in more depth in order to dig out those long odds winners.

Sunday, 22 August 2010

Sunday Silence !

There is not a lot happening today on the sprint front and the 4.20 is the best of it. Its a Class 3 Hcap over 5f and at the head of the weights is Jargelle the 2008 Super Sprint winner at Newbury. He had some good form last year but has lost his way this time around and has since been transferred to Nicholls. He had one run for him and was then put away for a break of 65 days, he runs here of a mark of 89 having been a 102 at one stage. He is a fast horse and it will be interesting to see how he develops for the sprint maestro and this looks a relatively easy Class 3 as they go. Titus Andronicus likes to go off at a good pace too and the race could be run to suit something coming from behind such as Rasaman or The Nifty Fox.
I cant come up with a final selection as such and it maybe best to perm 3 of the above such as Jargelle, Rasaman and The Nifty Fox in an exacta.

Saturday, 21 August 2010

Tabaret to make it 2 wins !

Sandowns Class 2 Hcap over 5f can go the way of Taberet in stall 13 against the far rail. He has the visor on again and can follow up his win at Doncaster which was run in a fast time and for which he only went up 3lb. He only has Sohraab on his right in stall 14 to beat to get the rail and he has been out of form for sometime, although is dangerously well handicapped if he came back to form here. Of the others Judge n' Jury came ran well last time when 2nd to Hamish McGonagall at York and a repetition of that would have him bang there too. Avertor is probably open to improvement as I dont think his jockey was to hard on him last time at Haydock. However I think Taberet can go well and 9/1 is a good price.

At Ripon we have another 6f handicap which is similar to last weeks Great St Wilfrid save that the going is not as soft this time and the draw should therefore not have the same effect. Tajneed who was 2nd in that over the far side is drawn on the opposite side here in stall 3 and he can run a similar race from his new mark. The 3 I like though are the very consistent Parisian Pyramid who is only 2lb higher than when beaten a length at York by Hawkeyethenoo, Wildcat Wizard who ran very well last time out at Goodwood and Medicean Man who has not run since he had a poord draw in the Wokingham and prior to that had looked to be a horse to follow. I also think Joseph Henry's performance in beating his stablemate Victoire De Lyphar is worthy of a mention. However I will probably go ew with Parisian Pyramid at his odds of 12/1.

At Chester we have 2 divisions of the Class 4 Totepool Hcap run over 6f and the going here is softer than the other 2 tracks. Paul Green has runners in each and both Lucky Dan in the 1st Div and Rio Cobollo in the 2nd Div are both well drawn in stall 5 in each. Both can go well off a strong pace and they are likely to get that here at a track where the stable like to get amongst the winners. In the first div Roker Park is drawn in stall 2 and could provide the most opposition to Lucky Dan as he has dropped down the weights as of late and won a Class 2 on Soft last summer off 90 and he gets in off 82 here. In the 2nd Div both Rievaulx World and Green Manalishi are well handicapped on old form and Ryan Style is only 2lb higher than when winning here earlier in the summer for his local yard. However the 2 Paul Green runners should both go well and could be a good ew double.

Friday, 20 August 2010

Did you feel the Power ???

No neither did I, however it was a day his owner wont forget even though they dont need the money it would seem. The sand drenched track must have been home form home for this all weather winner and he must have thought he was back at Dundalk. Overall it was a great day for the 3yo's filling the first 3 places and weve said all year that are a good bunch. The visor certianly lit up Rose Blossom who took a few lengths out of the field at the start but just couldnt maintain her run. Picadilly Filly also cut out the early pace and was able to hang on for 3rd and it is interesting that pre race his trainer said he has others just as fast at home. Starspangledbanner didnt get a very good start and after O'Brien saying that he would run his own race he seemed to forget about his 13 draw and tried to follow the pack and may have been better staying on the rail. We certainly havent seen any evidence of the fractions he does at home and maybe the stopwatch has had a malfunction somewhere along the line. The time was a second outside Dayjur's record and the race wont go down in history as one of the best. The winner now heads for France and there's every chance he could go well there too as he will get a similarly fast pace to come off. The other main contenders never really got into it and they can probably hold up the draw as a valid excuse for their dip in form.
All in all though there will be many people dissapointed with the result as it didnt give us what we all thought a close finish between Starspangledbanner and Equiano.

Thursday, 19 August 2010

The Nunthorpe at York

Well this race brings back some memories and the best of those for me was Dayjur winning when he was storming along in front and then he changed gear and went even faster, it was great viewing and if you get a chance to watch it again then do so as its well worth it.

Onto this year and there is some rain about tonight and the going at York at the moment is Good, Good to Firm in places but with the course having had 3 days of racing the rain will get in more easily, a look at the Going reports is advised in the morning.

The contenders for this years race have been pitting themselves against each other all year in the top sprints and I'm going to look at them in stalls order starting with number 1.
KINGSGATE NATIVE - He has Fallon in the saddle today so will not fail for lack of strength and this winner of the race as a 2yo is a Jekyll and Hyde of a character as regards his form, but if his good side turns up then he will be bang there if stall 1 doesnt inconvenience him too much.
PICADILLY FILLY - 100/1 outsider that has no realistic chance
EQUIANO - Has been in the form of his life this year and whose to say he cant get any better. Most pundits believe that he should be able to turn the tables on Starspangledbanner on their running in the July Cup at Newmarket as this flat track is much more suitable to him. He has been consistent all year 11212 and he should be able to break smartly from stall 3 and it looks like its going to be between him and Starspangledbanner come the finish. Okay a higher draw could have been better but he could well end up next to Starspangledbanner anyway as he has tended to drift left in his races and they will both be blitzing the trail in front. The stable say that he has never looked or worked better than he is now and if that is so will go very close, however if there is any rain it might just blunt his speed.
FLEETING SPIRIT - Probably hasnt lived up to his trainers expectations this year, however the ground looks like it could come his way tomorrow with the forecast rain. She was 5th in the July Cup and she probably needs to run the race of her life here.
DINKUM DIAMOND - 2yo that gets a generous weight allowance, but I cant see him getting involved.
SPIN CYCLE - He's probably not going to be in the first 3 in reality.
BORDERLESCOTT - Bids to make a hat trick of wins in this race, however he has had an interrupted preparation as it was thought that the injury he picked up last time would rule him out of this. The stable feel they have got him right but to win a Group 1 you have to be A1 and his injury may make him fall short this time. However although he is aged 8 he remains as enthusiastic as ever and if he is fit then he will finish close, although 3rd would be my idea of where he will finish this time. If he were to win he would command God like status.
PRIME DEFENDER - 50/1 outsider that has no realistic chance
ROSE BLOSSOM - Has been putting in some good performances against her own age group and she may suprise a few. Dons the first time visor to sharpen her up and she has course form.
MISTER HUGHIE - Finished with a flourish at Goodwood but they went fast there and that might have played to that type of run, okay they will go fast here but this is a better race.
SOLE POWER - 100/1 outsider that has no realistic chance
STONE OF FOLCA - 2yo that gets a generous weight allowance and his trainer has done it before with an unexposed 2yo, however I'm not sure lightning is going to strike twice.
STARSPANGLEDBANNER - Has the best of the draw in 13 if he can keep the rail as he has had a tendency to drift left. He is a bull of a horse that isnt 4 unti 10th September and his trainer has purred about all summer and he seems to be making all the right quotes again for this. He is blessed with abundant speed and he will fight out the finish with Equiano and I believe he will prevail again over his rival and take the spoils for the sponsors of the race.

It should be a thrilling race run at a very good pace and Equiano should get the early lead but wont be able to shake off the attentions of Starspangledbanner and he will stay on to win.

Lets hope its another one to watch again and again.

Wednesday, 18 August 2010

Up a bit, down a bit

In our regular look at the ups and downs of the handicapper we start the week with the Class 3 Halliwell Jones Hcap over 6f at Haydock on the 7th August which was won by Poet's Place by 3 3/4 lengths from Harry Patch with Damika the Great St Wilfrid winner a further 1 length away in 3rd. The winner as a result was raised 10lb to a mark of 96 and considering Damika won off the same mark of 94 the following week the winner could be worth following in the coming months. Trained by David Barron he is definitely in the right hands and I can see him running well in the Ayr Gold Cup.
On the 9th August the Rippleffect.Com Hcap over 6f at Windsor went to Caledonian Princess and he went up 5lb to 80, behind Get Carter ran well and was dropped 1lb to 82, Cheveton was dropped 2lb to 85 and Sohraab who has gone right off the boil of late was dropped 4lb to 85 and he must surely be able to figure off that mark soon.
There wasnt much else of note during the week and next up was the Universal Recycling Hcap a Class 3 over 5f at Doncaster which was run in a decent time of 57.31s (fast by 1.19s). The winner was Tabaret who was wearing a visor for the first time and carrying 9-10 in weight and he beat Doctor Parkes by 1/2 length, as a result has been raised 3lb to a mark of 88. Brierty ran well in 4th staying on towards the end and she remains on 80 and Solemn was 5th and he helps give the form a solid look as he was only 3lb higher here after beating a subsequent winner last time out.
The competitive 3yo Class 2 Hcap at Newmarket on the same afternoon went to Dafeef by a neck from Deacon Blues, Bated Breath who had looked so impressive the time before finished 3rd, however his trainer had reservations about him acting on the softer going. Dafeef has been raised 4lb to 106 the 2nd 3lb to 95 and the 3rd 2lb to 107, out the back Bagamayo was dropped 2lb to 98 and Iver Bridge Lad 2lb 100.
Finally the Great St Wilfrid a Class 2 6f Hcap at Ripon was won by Damika by a neck from previous winner Tajneed who was trying to make it 4-4 at the course. Damika has been raised 4lb as a result to 98 and this was his best ever run and his trainer has earmarked the Ayr Gold Cup as his next target and granted a bit of give and a good draw he will go well again. Tajneed has gone up 3lb to 97 and the 3rd Signor Peltro 1lb to 100 with the consistent Rileyskeepingfaith remaining on 102 in 4th, on the other side of the track Quest for Success ran very well to finish 5th and he too remains unchanged on 100. Behind there were drops for Pavershooz 2lb to 89, Advanced 2lb to 95, Johannes 2lb to 96, Favourite Girl 2lb to 92, Knot in Wood 3lb to 102 as well as others.

Hope you all managed to notice the Nicholls father and son success in the Claimer at Carlisle with Silaah today (mentioned last night in the comments on my last post), they really have mopped up in sellers and claimers this season and it remains a goldmine for us punters to follow.

Monday, 16 August 2010

Big Sprint at York

The 5f and 89 yards Handicap at York looks like being run at a very fast tempo with the likes of Captain Dunne and Glamorous Spirit in the field, however we have seen before that the latter barely gets 5f before her run peters out, but she has the assistance of Fallon so may do better. Captain Dunne led the field in the Group 2 at Goodwood so will find this easier although the cheek pieces which may have sparked him up there are left off this time.
Strike up the Band has lost his form of late but his trainer hasn't and the horse has dropped over 10lb in the ratings recently and is now down to a mark of 90 and if he were to find his form again he would surely go close as he was only 3 lengths and 4 lengths off the winner in the 2008(race run twice) and 2009 Group 1 Prix de la Abbaye's at Longchamp, however he maybe being targeted at that again, but he is well drawn and Nicholls could have run others in this.
Oldjoesaid is another that has been dropping in the ratings at an alarming rate and he seems to have lost his form altogether for his new stable.
Quest for Success ran well to finish 5th in the Great St Wilfred on the wrong side of the track, however he had a hard race there and he is not known for reappearing quickly but he is well drawn this time and could be bang there at the end.(He did actually win after running in another race 3 days earlier last October. He will like the going it if it goes soft.
Cheveton probably needs it a bit softer too to show his best and Haajes would appear to be out of his class in this.
Hamish McGonagall could go well as he has run well here in the past as it is a flat track, however he will be taken on for the lead in this and I'm not sure he likes that.
Sir Gerry has just his 2nd run for the Dwyer stable after finishing 7th in the Stewards Cup and he may benefit from the likely strong pace in this and will be runing on at the end. The talented apprentice Adam Beschizza takes off a valuable 7lb and 16/1 is a good price in my view as he was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths in the Stewards Cup off 106 and with the 7lb claim you could say he was off 98 for this.
There is some rain expected overnight which you had better check out in the morning on the BHB website "Going Reports" in case there has been a deluge.
Hopefully there will be no non runners with the rain and we will get the 4 places as I would be looking at doing both Sir Gerry and Strike up the Band ew who are both at double figure odds.

Saturday, 14 August 2010

Damika wins !!

Well I hope some of you availed yourself of the 20/1 about Damika in the Great St Wilfred, I had mentioned his chance on Thursday after the draw and he remained at 20/1 until before the race. Granted he only just won but there never is much between these sprinters and that is why the form changes round so much.
Tajneed ran a good race in 2nd but I had an idea he would be beat today and I think the non runners made a real difference as he didnt come out straight from the stalls and although he got to the front he had to do more than was required. I had mentioned on tuesday that 8/1 was a good price for him then and by the time of the race there was no ew value left.
I'm not sure what prompted the big gamble on Novellen Lad who was as high as 28/1 in the morning and at one stage before the race he went to 9/1, if anyone knows why he was backed so please let me know as he has previously liked fast ground.
Signor Peltro who finished 3rd was one of my horses to follow and some would say that he was unlucky today in not finishing closer than he did.
I thought Pricewise's comments on the race in general smacked of him not having studied the race in detail, he seemed to be following the obvious as far as Tajneed was concerned and it was pretty much a re run of what I had said on tuesday save for his selection of Fullandby who has had his day.
I also thought it suprising that those seeking the half million Scoop 6 pot did not include the winner, for me he was one of the leading fancies.
After the race Damikas's trainer said :
“He is a horse who can't go on firm so I was praying for rain. I’m surprised nobody thought about him for the race. He’ll go for the Ayr Gold Cup, which was always the plan.”

Will he or wont he ?

Tajneed is now at the cramped odds of 11/4 and whilst everything appears to be in his favour this is a competitive handicap that has a poor history for favs. This morning there have been 3 non runners declared and that will mean that Tajneed will be further over to the stands side than he would have been in a full field, ok its only a few stalls but it doesnt take much to turn the tables in these sprints. He ran well last time out but some may say that was because he wasnt on the pace and just came through beaten horses and he also had the assistance of a talented claimer taking off 5lb there, albeit he missed the break. So there is scope for him being beaten today and some of the others have been backed this morning, notably Advanced, who Coral's in their wisdom put up at 25/1 this morning and he is now down to a more realistic 12/1. You can still get 20/1 with Bet 365 about Damika and he could go well from his draw.

Other than the Great St Wilfred I would be looking at SOLEMN in the 4.35 at Doncaster. He beat Desert Poppy (76) last time off a mark of 81 by a nose and she won by 4 1/2 lengths at Newbury yesterday off her revised figure of 79, so he should be capable of going well off 84 now as he looks to be a progressive son of Pivotal in good hands.

We put up Bated Breath as a horse to follow after his Haydock romp, however there have been concerns about the softish going coming from the Charlton camp and although he has been mapped out for this for sometime it might not all be plain sailing.

Thursday, 12 August 2010

Drawing Conclusions !

Well, Tajneed managed to get stall 20 in the draw for the Great St Wilfred Handicap on Saturday and the full draw is as follows :-
20 Tajneed - 3/1 still available at 9.40am
19 Hitchens
18 Rileyskeepingfaith
17 Advanced - Been a bit of money for him since friday
16 Midnight Martini
15 Damika
14 Shifting Star - Non Runner
13 Signor Peltro
12 Novellen Lad
11 Noverre to Go - Non Runner
10 Tiddliwinks
09 Lowdown
08 Everymanforhimself
07 Johannes
06 Pavershooz
05 Wildcat Wizard - Non Runner
04 Knot in Wood
03 Favourite Girl
02 Fullandby
01 Quest for Success
Tajneed has been backed in 1 point to 7/1 since the draw was made and Hitchens in stall 19 has received quite a bit of support and is now into 12/1.
There have been some heavy bursts of rain in Yorkshire this afternoon and the going this morning at 8.15am was officially Good. There is a chance there will be similar weather tomorrow so it may become Good to Soft before Saturday, but a watching brief is advised and you can get up to date going reports on the BHB website at the bottom of the home page. If it is Good to Soft I would imagine more than half of the field will be fighting it out on the far side and Tajneed will be in the perfect place to take advantage, if he can hold his position against the rail, although favs have a poor record in this race.
Two at 20/1 who are drawn well are Damika and Advanced and Damika could be well berthed in 15 as he has been running well of late in decent handicaps and is reasonably weighted on old form.
Advanced too is well weighted, he won the Ayr Gold Cup in 2007 off 109 and is now down to 97 and with Amy Ryan taking off a further 3lb stall 17 looks good if he puts his best foot forward as he was 3rd in this last year.
Tiddliwinks however is probably Kevin Ryan's best chance of the winner and drawn in 10 he is well placed to take advantage wherever the pace is and whatever the going as have 4 winners in the last 10 years who were drawn in the middle of the pack.
I will post a final look at the race at around 12noon on Saturday.

Wednesday, 11 August 2010

The Great St Wilfred early thoughts.

This is a big Northern Handicap to get our teeth into this coming weekend and their are several horses we have looked at in detail over the last few weeks that are in with a shout of winning.

With 20 runners set to run it is likely that the field will split into 2 groups as in previous years and those drawn high have tended to fare best of all when there has been some give. The going is currently Good to Firm, so keep an eye out on the weather as there is set to be some rain later in the week. If it stayed Good to Firm you will need to be were the pace is as it is difficult to come from behind here.

Tajneed, a prominent racer usually, was the winner of this race in 2008 on Good to Soft off a mark of 92 (94 now). He was unlucky last time out when leaving the stalls as his jockey was slow to remove the hood and as a cosequence he jinked violently right and lost several lengths on the others. He then made steady progress through the race to finish fastest of all and only 4 lengths off the winner Hawkeyethenoo. If Tajneed gets some give in the going and breaks away sharply on Saturday there's every chance he could be another winner for the Nicholls sprint bandwagon and it would make his record at the track 4-4 and at this stage his odds of 8/1 look attractive.
Nicholls also has Goodwood winner Joseph Henry and Indian Trail to make up his 3 contenders however the latter needs 14 to come out to get in. He finished 3rd in 2007 off a mark of 92 and is rated 81 now and he still seems to be as good as ever on his recent running on 5th at Goodwood behind Hamoody.
Nicholls himself does have a good record in the race, he had the 6th, 7th and 8th in 2009, 1st and 2nd in 2008 and 3rd in 2007 as well as other placings over the years.

Other horses to look our for in this fiercely competitive sprint are Rileyskeepingfaith, Hitchens, Noverre to Go, Tiddliwinks, Favourite Girl, Wildcat Wizard and Joseph Henry. Most of those contested the Stewards Cup where Rileyskeepingfaith in coming 4th came out on top, however if it was Good to Firm on Saturday 5th placed Noverre to Go could turn the tables on him.
Joseph Henry, Wildact Wizard and Tiddliwinks finished 1st, 3rd and 4th respectively in the Stewards Cup consolation race which although run in a faster time than the actual Cup it was run on better going the day before. The 6th there, Five Star Junior, ran 2nd to Masta Plasta on tuesday night, having been unlucky in running and upholds the form. The 3rd and 4th could turn round the form however with Joseph Henry on 4lb better terms as both were unlucky in running at Goodwood.
Hitchens is trained by another handicap wizard in David Barron and it was interesting that Roger Charlton thought he was Genki's main danger in the Stewards Cup. Favourite Girl just keeps on improving and it would be no suprise to see her go well again too.

So there you have it, a very tough puzzle to solve, however at this stage I would be interested in Tajneed, Tiddliwinks, Noverre to Go and Wildcat Wizard.

Tuesday, 10 August 2010

No tragedy for Titus !

Titus Andronicus could run a big race in the 3.45 Class 4 Handicap at Beverley over 5f on Wednesday. He is drawn 13 of 13 and having had an average draw at Goodwood last time, where he didnt run too badly on his first run back, he should get the run of the race. He has been dropped 2lb since Goodwood and the talented Lee Topliss takes off a further 5lb. He showed last season that he has plenty of pace and if he can bag the rail from his good draw he has every chance of holding on up the hill, the betting forecast shows him at 8/1 which could be good value and an ew bet is advised.
Of course it will be no walk in the park and Discanti and Efistorm will be there or thereabouts as to will Mey Blossom.

A Storm is a brewing !

Noble Storm is fairly treated by the weights in the Class 3 Conditions Stakes at Nottingham over 5f at 7.50 and he can dominate the race from the front. Masta Plasta and Five Star Junior look set to give him the most to do, however the selection should have further improvement on this better going and his stable know how to handle a good sprinter.

Monday, 9 August 2010

Up a bit, down a bit

Well its good to be back from the holidays and be able to put up some more posts.
However whilst I was away I went to a big cat Zoo in the Isle of Wight which focussed on Lions and Tigers and when it was time for the Lions feeding time the keeper reminded us that most of the big cats food came from ex racehorses. There was about 20 of the big ones to feed each day !!....and it makes you think just how many unwanted ex racehorses go to the abatoir to feed all these animals up and down the country ??

Anyway back on to the racing and the handicappers "ups and downs" of the last few weeks.

First up is the Class 2 Japan Racing Association Sprint Stakes Handicap run over 5f at Ascot on the 25th July which went the way of Masamah by 1 length from Matsunosuke. It was thought that the best of the going would be down the middle however Spencer chose to come up the stands rail and was rewarded with victory, as a result Masamah was raised 6lb to 102, the 2nd 3lb to 90 and the 3rd Secret Witness 5lb to 91. The consistent Prohibit finished in 4th and was raised 1lb to 100 and of those behind Sohraab, who was running on, was dropped 1lb to 89... he is becoming favourably handicapped of late. Also Abraham Lincoln was down 2lb to 86 and Hoh Hoh Hoh down 5lb to 78, the latter has really lost his from this year but if he can turn it round he is also well in now on previous form.
The same afternoon at Carlisle Farhd Ar Bith delivered on the promise of his last run at Pontefract by being closer to the pace this time and was raised 6lb to 79 for his 3/4 length win from Amethyst Dawn, however he looks a progressive type and can win again.
At Pontefract the admirable Mr Wolf continued his love affair with the course (8 wins) and won the Class 5 Handicap off 65.

On Monday 26th July the Class 4 Fillies Hcap at Windsor over 6f went to Caledonia Princess by 1 1/2 lengths (winner again tonight) from Bougainvilia, the latter was carrying 10 stone and did well in the circumstances as there was 2 3/4 lengths back to the 3rd. Bougainvilia can improve on this and may drop to 5f next time, the winner went up 7lb to 73 and Bougainvilia 3lb to 83.
At Yarmouth the same day Fathsta was given one of Spencer's hold up rides in the Class 4 over 6f and as a result finished 3rd beaten 1 length, he remains on 85 and can go well again. Behind Angus Newz was dropped 2lb to 80 and Green Manalishi 3lb to 82.

At Goodwood the Group 2 Audi Stakes went to the consistent Borderlescott by 1/2 length from Group Therapy over the very fast 5f course. The 3yo Astrophysical Jet showed that she is an improving sort in finsishing a 3/4 length 3rd receiving only 7lb as did Mister Hughie who was only a further head behind in 4th and he is clearly capable of winning a decent race on this showing. Tropical Treat is another 3yo who had showed good form previously and was probably unlucky in this in finishing 6th. The American horse Starfish Bay would never have encountered a course like this in her life before and she was unable to get to the front, if she was to return on a more conventional track she would surely win. Amour Propre finished down the field in 12th and has been dropped 5lb as a result to 105 and we may now see him back in a handicap.
Later in the afternoon the Class 3 5f Handicap went to Hamoody by a head from Bajan Tryst. The winners time was only marginally slower than the Group 2 and he has only been raised 3lb to 85 so remains favourably handicapped if Nicholls wishes to pay another trip to the well. Bajan Tryst also looks in good sorts and can go well again now that he is coming too hand. The old stager Indian Trail was probably the fastest finsisher once again and he remains on 81 for his efforts and must remain on the short list particularly if his sights are set a little lower.
On the Friday of Goodwood week was the Class 2 Stewards Cup Consolation race over 6f and it was won by another Nicholls inmate in Joseph Henry who beat his more fancied stablemate Victoire De Lyphar by a head and as a result has been raised 5lb to 89, the latter however remains a most likeable individual and he is certainly in the right hands to reach the very top of the sprinting ladder, he is now on a mark of 101. Wildcat Wizard who had lost his form a bit of late and Tiddliwinks both ran well in 3rd and 4th and are well capable of winning on their day as is the 5th placed Crimea who had finished 3rd the day before. The 3yo Kelly's Eye and Oldjoesaid are ones to keep on the right side of from those out the back.

The Stewards Cup itself went to Evens and Odds, last years 2nd, and it was another winner for Sprint King Dandy Nicholls who dominated them all week here. The winner won by 1/2 length from Johnny Mudball and the latter showed that his run at Newcastle wasnt all down to the draw as many had thought. Evens and Odds goes up 8lb to 106 and Johnny Mudball 5lb to 104, with the 3rd Prohibit and 4th Rileyskeepingfaith each going up 1lb to 99 and 102 respectively, both of those remain in good form too. Noverre to Go remains on 97 for his 5th Place and he may be a better proposition on firmer going, he had also finsished 7th in the Wokingham. The ease in the going was the excuse for poor showings from Genki, Enact, Palace Moon(better than his current mark according to Fallon), Striking Spirit and Kaldoun Kingdom and all remain as winners to come and were all left on their same handicap marks. Hitchens though looks one to bear in mind for future races and goes onto the horses to follow list.