Thursday, 21 May 2015

The Temple Stakes big race facts

The Betfred.Com Temple Stakes - Haydock - Group 2
History Has been run at Haydock since 2008 having previously been staged at Sandown between 1965 to 2003 on Whitsun (now Spring) Bank Holiday Monday Holborn, owned by Charles Englehard won the first running. Previous form in the race in recent years has been beneficial.
Draw Record last 7 years : 
2014 - 7, 1, 5, 3 (9 ran) Good to Soft - Oisin Murphy 1m 0.15s
2013 - 10, 4, 5, 11 (10 ran) Firm - Shane Kelly 59.25s
2012 - 2, 4, 4, 12 (12 ran) Firm 56.39s
2011 - 5, 12, 11, 1 (12) Good to Firm 57.67s
2010 - 4, 6, 9, 5 (9) Good to Firm 58.92
2009 - 1, 11, 6, 12 (9) Heavy 1m 4.03s
2008 - 3, 1, 10, 4 (12) Good to Firm 57.15s
Low numbers favoured
Age of Winner - 3, 8, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3
Result :
2014 : 1st Hot Streak, 2nd Pearl Secret, 3rd Kingsgate Native, 4th Justice Day
2013 : 1st Kingsgate Native, 2nd Swiss Spirit, 3rd Reckless Abandon, 4th Sole Power
2012 : 1st Bated Breath, 2nd Sole Power, 3rd Spirit Quartz, 4th Borderlescott
2011 : 1st Sole Power, 2nd Kingsgate Native, 3rd Prohibit, 4th Borderlescott
2010 : 1st Kingsgate Native, 2nd Equiano, 3rd Borderlescott, 4th Spin Cycle
2014 Racing Post Analysis :
A one-two for Qatar Racing with HOT STREAK leading home Pearl Secret, the pair well clear. They all raced middle to far side.
Hot Streak, whose top apprentice rider was unable to claim his 3lb allowance, is a tremendously fast horse and, despite being taken on up front by Justineo (who faded to finish sixth), he sustained his challenge to skip clear before easily holding off the runner-up´s late bid. This was a really taking performance from a young, still improving sprinter and, when the emphasis is on speed, European runners at least are going to find him tough to beat.

Friday, 15 May 2015

Back on Track

Hoping to get back on track today and find a winner.

2.55 Newbury - This sees a decent field line up over the 6f. Clear Spring won a 4 runner Class 2 Conditions Stakes at Haydock last Saturday and consequently has to carry a 6lb penalty. He was up against Intibaah and Louis The Pious over whom he held a fitness advantage on Soft ground, the other runner Invincible Ridge was 14lb wrong with Clear Spring at the weights, so he faces a  tough task today with 6lb penalty. Clear Spring prior to that race had a run a good race to finish 5th behind Pipers Note at Ripon, where he was 2 lengths behind Algar Lad who won a Class 2 Handicap at York earlier this week.
Fast Track and Golden Steps head the market today and they both return from their winter breaks. The form that entitles them to be were they are in the betting is their race at Newmarket last July when they finished 1st and 5th over 6f on Good to Firm in a time of 1m 11.49s. Eastern Impact was a running on second that day beaten a nose and he was giving Fast Track and Golden Steps 9lb and 2lbs respectively.
Eastern Impact ran again at Newmarket a week last Sunday in another Class 2 Handicap beating the progressive Huntsmans Close, finishing in 4th was Accession who runs today and he was receiving 3lbs if you take Jack Garrity's claim into account. However the winning time of that race was 1m 9.82s ie 1.67s faster, the winning distances being a shd, 1 length, 1 length. Accession was drawn 2 of 22 on the outside, he broke well and had to come across the field in order to get a prominent position which he held throughout the race. The going was probably faster than ideal (9.2 on the going stick) and he was reverting back to 6f, having run predominantly over 7f, however he recorded a career high top speed figure of 85. 
He is 2-3 at Newbury, he is 3-11 in fields between 6 and 11 runners and 2-4 when running between 8 and 14 days since last run. There are 10 runners and 12 days since his last run.
The stalls are positioned on the stands side rail and he is drawn 9. Chilworth Icon is drawn 10 and he tends to start slowly and generally be held up so Accession should get the rail if his jockey chooses to use it. The going at Newbury is officially Good (6.3 on the going stick) so it should suit him better than at Newmarket.
On the line through Eastern Impact he should have the beating of Fast Track and Golden Steps and with the fitness and the rail draw he is the value bet at 5/1 and he will need to win well in order to get a rating high enough to get into the Wokingham which the stable would like to get into if possible.
Of the others Eternitys Gate has room for improvement although he is running from 4lb out of the handicap and Magnus Maximus winner of the Tattersalls Million in 2013 has blinkers applied for the first time in an effort to rekindle his enthusiasm.

Tuesday, 12 May 2015

York's Dante Meeting - Day 1

Well I'm off to York tomorrow to watch Tatlisu in the 2.40 Class 2 Handicap.

He doesn't have the best of draws in stall 1 as only 1 winner has come from that stall in sprints since 2009 - a total of 91 in all, but Ryan Moore will be riding and hopefully he can get a toe into the race as he usually travels well.

The overnight favourite looks to be Polybius and he is entered for the Group 2 Temple Stakes and the Group 1 July Cup so this may be a springboard to better things and he must be well thought of to get those kind of entries, he holds a decent draw in 17, although he has no real experience of big field handicaps.

The first 4 home from Pipers Note's win at Ripon last time re oppose. 
Tudhope has not ridden Algar Lad since last July so I don't think we can read anything into him being on the stables Out Do as he won on him last time out at Pontefract. In that race he stole a march on the others and it paid to be out in front that day. He doesn't have a great record at York finishing 8958 from 4 starts.

Kickboxer has now been transferred to Godolphin so high hopes for him too, although he has yet to win here from 4 starts, albeit he was 3rd to G Force in one of his attempts..

All 4 of Blaine's wins have come in July/August so it might be a bit early to catch him even though he is well drawn in 18.

Bogart should be all the sharper for his return at Beverley and Boy In The Bar should also come on with blinkers back on for his second start for Richard Fahey.

It's a very difficult race in which to come to a conclusion as we don't know what effect the draw will have, if any and it may be a wise move to go for two horses, one drawn high and one drawn low, but if Polybius is as good as they think he is he may take some stopping.

Richard Fahey quotes - I thought everything went wrong for Tatlisu at Ripon last time. They spread out across the track and he’s a horse who needs cover in his races. He hasn’t got a great draw for that here but if they go quick up front I hope he’s in the right place to pick them off.

I was pleased enough with Boy In The Bar’s first run for us at Ascot where I feel the ground just dried out a little bit too much for him. He wouldn’t want it too quick and we’ve stuck the blinkers back on him on the recommendation of Robert Winston. We’ll see what effect they have.

In the Duke of York at 3.15 the two horses most likely to go on to better things, Muthmir and Lightning Moon, are returning from their winter breaks and on this occasion it may be best to go with those with race fitness as there will be plenty of pace on here. However beyond those two this isn't looking a race bursting with talent and Astaire at 13/2, the winner of the Abernant at Newmarket is worth risking your money on.
Of the others I think Naadirr was flattered by his win at Doncaster as he he was shielded from the strong headwind. Aetna and Jack Dexter probably need more cut in the going to show their best whist Lucky Kristale hasnt done much for a while.
Mattmu was stuffed by Limato last season and will probably need the race in any event. 

Friday, 8 May 2015

Hawkeyethenoo to roll back time !

The Victoria Cup on Saturday is the competitive race that you would expect it to be but there is one horse who is beginning to get some respite from the handicapper and that is Hawkeyethenoo who gets in here at the bottom of the handicap on a mark of 93 with Hector Crouch taking off a further 7lb, so he will be running off and actual weight of 8-1 or a mark of 86.

You may think he is getting a bit old in the tooth but he is a former winner of this race and he often runs well here and as we have seen in these sprints this year age is no barrier.

When he won this race back in 2011 as a 5yo he was rated 96 and his winning distance was a comfortable two and a half lengths. The going was Good to Firm that day and the actual weight he carried was 8-7 with the time recorded being 1m 26.49s.

In October he returned to the track for the 14th time over this distance in a Class 2 Handicap off a mark of 100, actual weight carried 9-6, It was Good to Firm that day and he was drawn in stall 18 of 18. He was settled out the back on the rail before running on to be beaten just one and a quarter lengths, despite a troubled passage, in a race time of 1m 26.44s and the Racing Post analysis read as follows :
Steadied start and switched to race near side, held up, progress 2f out against near side rail, stayed on well final furlong, gaining at finish.

This season he has had two races and on his latest start at Haydock his rider adopted similar tactics to his Ascot run and he was running on at the end despite not having the clearest of passages and hopefully that will have set him up for a decent run in this.

This time last season he was running in Group 2's over 5f and 6f which is probably a bit short for him now and in 2013 he wasn't beaten far in both the Group 1 Golden Jubilee here and the Haydock Sprint Cup behind Lethal Spirit and Gordon Lord Byron respectively. He won the Stewards Cup off 103(top weight) as a 6yo and has consistently run well in big sprints through his career.

He is drawn 16 of the 29 runners tomorrow so he should be able to get plenty of cover. He should also get the strong pace he needs as Outback Traveller in stall 13 should lead, whilst Zarwaan 14, Bronze Angel 18, Lulu The Zulu 19, Dream Spirit 20 and Heavens Guest 22  all like to race prominent so there's plenty of pace about him. 

Seven of his 8 wins have come when  he's carried 9 stone or less and his last 4 wins have come in fields of 20 or more runners as he seems to like coming through horses. It's now just a case of whether his young jockey is able to steer him through the gaps.

Although he has run well on ground described as good to firm in the past he ideally needs the ground to be on the soft side of good. The going is currently good at Ascot however there has been a bit of rain about as well as racing on Friday night so hopefully the going will be just about right.

Once again I am not saying he will win but he is decent odds for a horse of his ability and as several bookmakers are paying 5 places you should take advantage of that offer as he will pay decent odds for a place with his current odds being 40/1. 

Good Luck !

Van the Man !

Well back to my sprint roots today as there is a wide outsider that I think has the potential to do better than his 50/1 odds.
Van Ellis drops to Class 3 handicap company following his Class 2 run at Ripon against the likes of Pipers Note and Tatlisu.
The handicapper has dropped him 5lb from 100 to 95 and the excellent Cam Hardie takes off another 3lb.
James Doyle was booked at Ripon, Van Ellis's first run back following a long break, so Steve Flook, who is better known as a Hunter Chase trainer must have thought he had a chance in that race.
At Ripon he set a very good pace on the far side leading the field before he eventually gave way and faded at about the furlong pole. He was allowed to come home in his own time and was well beaten according to a number of race readers. The Racing Post analysis said the following "Led far side, headed over 1f out, weakened and eased"
This run was no surprise given that he was coming back off an 814 day break.
He was bought for 8,000 at the 2014 Ascot December Sales having previously been with Mark Johnston and Godolphin.
When with Johnston he won twice at Chester in 2012, both wins coming from stall 9 of 9 runners(we've seen this week its difficult to overcome a high draw) so he did very well to win both of those, the latter of which was a listed race.
Immediately prior to that Listed win he won the Skybet Dash by a length and a quarter over 6f at York off a mark of 100 when he was drawn in possibly the worst stall of all on the straight track number 1.
In October 2012 he contested the Group 2 Champions Sprint at Ascot where he came up against the likes of Group 1 winning sprinters Society Rock and Maarek. He once again got the worst of the draw in stall 1 of 15 but he showed up well without getting any cover and faded at the furlong pole. He was a 3yo though against older horses and he was only beaten 6 1/4 lengths at the line.
Prior to his return last month his last run was when 2nd at Meydan for Godolphin in 2013.
He has only run 15 times in total in his 6 years and 6 is an age that top sprint trainer Robert Cowell says is the best age for a sprinter, so he is in his prime with possible improvement/return to his old form to come. The handicapper had him rated as high as 108 as a 3yo and with Cam Hardie's claim he is effectively now running off a mark of 92.

He runs 7.10 at Ascot on Friday over 6f, he is drawn 7 of the 14 so hopefully he will get a little bit of cover if needed. I am not saying he is going to win but at the likely price of between 33/1 to 50/1 he could represent some value and is worth a small each way investment at those odds.