Wednesday, 16 April 2014

A few days off

                                                                                                                         
I'm taking a few days over the Easter weekend as me and my partner are off to Yorkshire. Results haven't been going my way and these early weeks are always tricky when there is a mix of horses that have run and those that are coming back from a break.
Funnily enough I was going to select Chooseday ew today at 20/1 but I chickened out last night. What I need is a decent winner to get confidence back.
Tomorrow of course is the Abernant at Newmarket and it looks another head scratcher withhorses changing   distance and others taking each other on again. 

Sunday, 13 April 2014

Pontefract Class 2



I haven't had the greatest start to the sprinting year but hopefully I will soon be back on track. However there is no use hiding away and we have to be bold and carry on and David O'Meara's Louis The Pious can hopefully get us back into at least the first three at Pontefract on Monday and some ew money at his current odds of 7/1.
He is running off the same mark of 98 from which he came second in the Ayr Gold Cup, half a length in front of Jack Dexter, and surely that sort of form entitles him to go close provided he is ready for his first run of the season. He tends to run on well so the uphill finish should suit him well and the stable have had a couple of winners so far. He also finished 7th, beaten 4 lengths, in the Stewards Cup and the 4th, 5th, 6th and 10th are all entered in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket this Thursday.
Fast Shot, Yeeoow and Baby Strange, who have all run once this season already, could give him the most to do, but he must surely be placed.

There are plenty of decent sprints on this week and I will try and review a number of them.

Looking back over the weekend, although not a sprint, I thought Spa's Dancer ran a cracker in the Newbury Spring Cup and he must surely be not far from a win whilst the softish ground is still around.

On a different note I've booked some tickets to see Kodaline in concert in Liverpool. They will be playing at the massive Liverpool Cathedral over the Sound City weekend and it should be a great setting for this excellent band.
 

Thursday, 10 April 2014

Painting by Numbers ?



Dutch Masterpiece looks a horse on the up and he can get back on the winning trail in the 4.15 Class 2 Handicap at Newbury over 5f 34yards.
He is top weight but his trio of wins last summer all looked good on the eye and he should be able to lie up with the pace before producing the telling turn of foot that he has to come out on top and with Ryan Moore in the saddle it presents the icing on the cake.
He's a skinny price but you can get 11/4 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and although, as the Racing Post says, there are others lurking down the weights they are running on what they have shown whereas Dutch Masterpiece could still be open to further improvement having only had 10 starts to date.

Good Luck !

Monday, 7 April 2014

Weekly Review - Aintree



Looking back at the National meeting last week we had many confirmations of Cheltenham form over the three days and not least in the National winner itself Pineau De Re. The winner was French bred for extreme distance and this is born out by the dosage index and that he was related to Otage Du Perche who won the 3m5f Grand Steeplechase De Paris. He was the third 11yo in succession to win the big one and prior to that there were two 10yo winners so the balance has tipped in favour of the older horse. He was really on top at the end running on strongly and if he had 10lb more on his back he would probably still have been the winner.

Looking back on his run at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final he was third to Fingal Bay and Southfield Theatre.The latter grabs me as a Royal Sun Alliance type for Nicholls, he was carrying 7lb more than Pineau De Re and his trainer said afterwards that "He will be some awesome chaser next year" and he is not often wrong in the assessment of his emerging talent.

One or two to take out of the National are Double Seven, who was running on unfavourable going. McCoy didn't really give a lot of hope for his chances pre race but next year he will be at the prime age of 9 and no doubt he will be campaigned for the race. He probably wont get the going that he wants as the executive will always strive, it would seem, to get the going on the easy side of good.
Also Alvarado made up an extreme amount of ground in the closing stages and surely if he can lie closer to the pace next time round he can get better his 4th place and maintain his owner and jockeys very good run of places in the race.

It was disappointing to see one of my selections Across The Bay get carried out as they went to go out onto the second circuit. I know his jockey was upset at what happened but surely he has to take some of the blame. It doesn't take Einstein to work out that a loose horse will almost certainly want to return to the stables rather go round the National course again and he should really have placed himself on the opposite side of the loose horse or at the very least dropped back and let it go past.

In the Topham the 6yo Ma Filleule took the field apart and franked the form of Holywell in the process having finished second to him at Cheltenham, Holywell himself had won earlier in the day at Aintree. Ma Filleule recorded a time 7 seconds quicker than his stablemate Triolo D'Alene did in the Topham carrying a stone in weight more and his trainer commented after the race that he had hoped she would take to the fences as she had been the best of the ones he had tried over the National type fences at home. Being only six she may be a longer term prospect for  the National as she probably will have other targets such as the Hennessy and Gold Cup next season for which she will have a 5lb mares allowance.

One thing I noticed in the National after the first circuit was the number of volunteers re dressing the fences once they had been jumped. In previous years I'm not sure this has taken place with such vigour and I can remember from the past big gaps in the fences that the jockeys used to aim for to conserve their mounts energy on the second circuit. This time around though there were no gaps to see on the second circuit so the horses had to jump the fences as though it was the first circuit and this will have placed even further questions against the staying and jumping ability of each horse that was still involved.

Don't know about you but generally the fences looked a bit scruffier than normal and standards seemed to have dropped in that department. Bechers didn't look like the same fence and I think it was something to do with the way it was dressed. I know its been taken apart bit by bit over the years - no brook, reduced drop etc etc but it needs to look the part.

Sunday, 30 March 2014

It's no secret ?



Unfortunately yesterday I overlooked Dinkum Diamond because he had only won over 5f previously, however he had very good 6f form but just hadn't won. For instance he had finished 3rd in last seasons Wokingham - winning the race on his side so it was form for all to see. Granted Jack Dexter seemed to run a bit flat yesterday but the form of last years race with Captain Ramius pretty much worked out with the latter coming out on top this time.

Today there is another big field handicap over 6f and one at the head of the weights who has finished 3rd in the last 2 Portland Handicaps is Secret Witness. He was off a handicap mark of 104 in 2012 and 98 in 2013 and runs here off 95 and this is a track where he has run many good races in big fields so at 25/1 he is worth having a small ew punt on. His run will probably be better the more the going dries out as he has form on Good to Soft and Liam Jones is a good jockey booking.

Good Luck.